Below is a position from a recent match that presents an interesting dilemma. While a roll of 44 or 54 would have been preferable, we must work with a less favorable roll of 62. The move for 6 is mandatory (13/7), leaving only the move for 2 to consider. Let's analyze the potential plays:
Candidate Plays
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Play A: 13/7 13/11 This option exposes us to direct hits from green with rolls of 6s and 2s. However, these numbers are also needed by green to hit in their home board, potentially reducing the risk. This play leaves us vulnerable, but not excessively so.
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Play B: 13/5 This play leaves fewer blots, which could reduce the chance of losing by gammon by 8%, a significant consideration given that losing a gammon could mean losing the entire match if the doubling cube is at 2. However, it exposes us to more potential hits, including 6s, 4s, 3s, and 2s, making it less favorable than Play A.
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Play C: 13/7 6/4 (or 5/3) This is the least favorable option, leaving more blots and exposing us to hits from direct rolls of 6s, 4s, 3s, and 2s. It also reduces our flexibility in handling future rolls.
All three plays involve considerable risk with limited upside. Simply hoping for a favorable outcome is not a winning strategy. Therefore, we must consider a fourth, more aggressive play: 13/7 3/1*, commonly known as the "banana split".
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The Banana Split Strategy
This proactive play puts pressure on our opponent, forcing them to roll well to avoid a significant disadvantage. While this move appears risky, it actually offers a higher probability of winning. The key points are:
- The opponent fails to re-enter with 16 out of 36 rolls, creating a significant swing in our favor. This provides opportunities to cover with our spare checkers and pick up an additional blot in the outfield.
- Regardless of our choice, we are leaving potential hits; thus, a bold move is warranted. The banana split increases our win percentage by 4% and gammon wins by 8%. A gammon at this stage is particularly advantageous, bringing us closer to an efficient 2-away match score.
With the doubling cube in play, green cannot re-double, giving us further incentive to make a bold play. Let's consider the rolls:
- With 13/7 3/1*: We are hit back with 20 out of 36 rolls (6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, and combinations thereof).
- With 13/11 13/7: We are hit back with 32 out of 36 rolls, including potential return hits with a banana split.
Surprisingly, despite the apparent risk, the banana split is statistically safer than the other options by a substantial margin.
In conclusion, the key to winning in backgammon is to play proactively and seize opportunities. In the actual match, the bold play was made, the opponent failed to re-enter, and the game shifted decisively.
| eXtreme Gammon Analysis | XG++ |
|---|---|
| 13/7 3/1* | -0.146 |
| P: 48.0 25.8 0.4 0: 52.0 32.6 5.5 | |
| 13/11 13/7 | -0.254 |
| P: 44.6 16.3 0.5 0: 55.4 23.21.4 | -0.108 |
| 13/5 | -0.27 |
| P: 41.5 15.4 0.7 0: 58.5 15.4 0.5 | -0.124 |
| 13/7 5/3 | -0.437 |
| P: 38.8 15.3 0.6 0: 61.2 28.9 1.9 | -0.291 |
| 13/7 614 | -0.451 |
| P: 38.4 14.6 0.6 0: 61.6 29.1 1.8 | -0.305 |